Besides the AFC North, the NFC North had as much parity last season as any other division, with all four teams logging at least seven wins.
THE NEWS
Shooting in Upper East Side leaves one woman dead, another clinging to life
Two women were shot – one killed and one left clinging to life – on the Upper East Side as a child sat in the back seat of a car nearby, cops and sources said.
Verizon employee in U.S. charged with working as Chinese agent
A telecommunications and information technology worker residing in Florida, has been charged with acting as an agent for the People’s Republic of China, and faces a potential maximum prison sentence of 15 years.
The U.S. Department of Justice released a statement Wednesday, stating Ping Li, a 59–year–old U.S. citizen who immigrated from China, failed to register as a foreign agent, and used his position in Verizon, and an international information company to spy for China’s Ministry of State Security, or MSS.
The MSS handles all civilian intelligence collection for China, and uses “cooperative contacts” located in certain areas outside of China, to gather intelligence to further China’s agendas. This includes any information about foreign companies and corporations, and information around foreign politicians or those in foreign intelligence agencies.
These contacts are also responsible for informing the Chinese government about any Chinese political dissidents who reside in those countries.
According to the statement, since 2012, Li served as a contact and was directed to obtain “information of interest.” Li obtained information concerning Chinese dissidents, pro-democracy advocates, U.S.–based non-governmental organizations, and members of the Falun Gong religious movement.
Information about Li’s employer, Verizon, was also shared with the MSS, and Li frequently returned to China to meet with the MSS, and used various anonymous online platforms to communicate.
The Falun Gong religious movement is not formally recognized in China, and was outlawed in 1999, according to the statement. Li was ordered to spy on members of this movement and reported back in August of 2012, with the name and biographical information on a resident living in St. Petersburg, Florida.
Between 2015 and 2022, Li had sent information about his employers, a training manual, details about hacking events carried out by the Chinese government involving U.S. companies, and information which included the name and address of individuals who had fled China.
The Tampa Bay Times reported Wednesday that Li had not made a guilty plea after appearing in court Monday. Li’s attorney Daniel Fernandez told the paper he was waiting for more information from the government and Li was a “model citizen,” having lived in the U.S. for over 30 years.
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Netanyahu reportedly upset with Harris over VP’s Israel remarks as White House pushes back
Sinaloa Drug Cartel Co-Founder Tricked Into Flying To Small US Airfield, Greeted With Handcuffs
Sinaloa Drug Cartel Co-Founder Tricked Into Flying To Small US Airfield, Greeted With Handcuffs
In a story destined to be dramatized on the big screen, a major Mexican drug lord was tricked on Thursday into flying aboard a small plane that landed near El Paso, Texas, where federal agents greeted him on the tarmac with handcuffs.
That big prize was 76-year-old Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, who co-founded the infamous Sinaloa cartel with Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman in the late 1980s. El Chapo was extradited to America in 2017 and is serving a life sentence at the federal supermax penitentiary in Florence, Colorado. El Chapo’s son, Joaquín Guzman Lopez, may become his “so close and yet so far” neighbor at the Alcatraz of the Rockies, as he was also nabbed in the creative scheme — and reportedly participated in it.
Attorney General Merrick Garland announced the arrests in a statement issued Thursday:
“The Justice Department has taken into custody two additional alleged leaders of the Sinaloa Cartel, one of the most violent and powerful drug trafficking organizations in the world…Both men are facing multiple charges in the United States for leading the Cartel’s criminal operations, including its deadly fentanyl manufacturing and trafficking networks.”
According the Wall Street Journal’s Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) sources, El Mayo was led to believe the small aircraft he was boarding would take him to survey covert airstrips inside Mexico. The scheme was months in the making, and was a joint project with the FBI.
Adding to the cinematic intrigue, a high-ranking cartel member is said to have tricked the two into boarding the US-bound airplane. Plot twist: The New York Times reports that it was Guzman Lopez — El Chapo’s son who was also aboard and arrested. Fox News‘ Bryan Llenas reports that a source tells him Guzman Lopez was said to have turned on El Mayo because he blamed him for his father’s apprehension.
While the DOJ and DEA statements didn’t identify the airstrip, reports from Reuters and KTSM indicate the plane landed at Santa Teresa International Jetport, which is located in New Mexico, just across the state line from El Paso. “One worker at the Santa Teresa airport…[said] that he saw a Beechcraft King Air land on the runway, where federal agents were already waiting,” Reuters reports.
Since the Sinaloa Cartel is widely believed to be the foremost smuggler of illicit fentanyl, the twin-arrests represent a major triumph for federal law enforcement, and come at a time when Donald Trump and other Republican candidates are sharply criticizing the Biden administration’s performance on that particular drug-war front.
Another of Chapo’s sons, Ovidio Guzman, was extradited to the US in January 2023. El Chapo’s four sons are known as “Los Chapitos,” and the same name is used by the criminal organization they’ve run, which is one of four that comprise the Sinaloa Cartel. In October, the Sinaloa Cartel reportedly banned fentanyl production and trafficking, but the DEA dismissed the announcement as “probably a publicity stunt,” noting that the volume of fentanyl seized at the border was undiminished.
“Fentanyl is the deadliest drug threat our country has ever faced, and the Justice Department will not rest until every single cartel leader, member, and associate responsible for poisoning our communities is held accountable,” said Garland. Synthetic opioids — including fentanyl — were responsible for more than 74,000 deaths in the United States in 2023, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
While the DEA crowed that the arrest of El Mayo represents an “enormous blow to the Sinaloa Cartel,” don’t count on it to have a material impact on the flow of drugs into the United States. “We aren’t talking about a structure that depends on a few kingpins — it’s very diffuse and resilient to these kinds of hits,” International Crisis Group senior analyst Falko Ernst tells the Times. In the near term, he adds, the principal result will likely be violence as the cartel’s succession competition plays out.
It should also be noted that, in a grand example of unintended consequences of government market interventions, the rise of fentanyl is itself a product of the war on drugs. Per Richard Cowan’s Iron Law of Prohibition, “As law enforcement becomes more intense, the potency of prohibited substances increases.” That’s because high-potency drugs are easier to smuggle — giving a 10-pound parcel of fentanyl a far better risk/reward/ROI profile than a truckload of marijuana.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 07/26/2024 – 09:30
How to watch the 2024 Olympics Opening Ceremony live from Paris for free
Live from the City of Love.
Wild video shows small plane crashing into family’s front yard
A small plane with two people onboard crashed into the front yard of a Roy, Utah home on July 24. The incredible footage was captured by a neighbor’s security camera on his house. The two people onboard the plane were taken to area hospitals with no serious injuries. The Federal Aviation Administration and National Transportation…
FBI wants to interview Trump after assassination attempt: source
Ohio brothers trapped, facing criminal charges in Dubai claim they were set up: ‘This could ruin our lives’
Market Moves Like These “Have Not Ended Well”
Market Moves Like These “Have Not Ended Well”
Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance
Friend of Fringe Finance Lawrence Lepard released his most recent investor letter this week. He gets little coverage in the mainstream media, which, in my opinion, makes him someone worth listening to twice as closely.
Larry was kind enough to allow me to share his thoughts heading into Q3 2024. The letter has been edited ever-so-slightly for formatting, grammar and visuals.
This is Part 1 of his letter, part two will be published later this week.
QUARTERLY OVERVIEW
In the second quarter ended June 30, the most notable development was that silver performed very well and followed the Q1 break-out in gold. Recall, in early March gold broke through the 3-year resistance ceiling at $2,070/oz. and subsequently shot as high as $2,400 before backing off to the $2,375 area presently. In the case of silver, the ceiling was in the $26 — $27/oz area, and in early April silver broke through this and subsequently traded up to $32 before settling at $30-$31/oz area presently.
This is important because, historically, silver tends to lag gold, but when silver gets going it moves much higher and much faster. The silver break-out confirms gold’s break-out and historically a falling gold to silver ratio is a part of all precious metals bull markets.
Another interesting development in the quarter was the S&P 500. After a rocky April, where the S&P 500 index was down -4.1%, the stock market came storming back in May and June and hit a new record high on June 29, leaving the stock market up + 15.3% in the 1H 2024. Nothing seems to slow this stock market down and it is now up +81% since January 1, 2020. Investors seem convinced that stocks are invincible and the winning strategy since 2008 has been to buy the dip. Given record valuations and higher interest rates that are just beginning to have an impact on consumption, we believe there is vulnerability there, even though we would not short it. (meaning it is probably ready to break).
The next chart is incredible. It depicts the “everything bubble” driven by fiat money creation.
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Note the S&P 500 (white line) and how it’s so FAR ABOVE its 200 Day Moving Average (yellow line)
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In both 2000 and 2008, the S&P 500 corrected back to its 200 day moving average
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That would be a 55% crash if that happened now
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Also note the M2 Money Supply (blue line), which has blown this everything bubble for the past 15 years. o M2 has increasingly had to do more heavy lifting over the past four years
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That’s what happens in a levered economy – you need to print more to keep the game going
S&P 500 Index / 200 Day Moving Avg vs. M2 Money Supply: 1980-Present
What makes this bubble particularly risky is that it exists at the sovereign debt/currency level. Not simply dotcoms or houses. Historically, parabolic moves like the one above have not ended well. But who are we to say when it will end. When it does end, no amount of monetary accommodation is going to save it, and the amount of M2 growth necessary just to keep the system functioning is going to be substantial.
The chart below shows another view of this bubble. People sure do love their stocks with stocks comprising approximately 35% of household’s overall assets. Historically, peaks like this have led to rather large future drawdowns. Most particularly in the inflationary decade of the 1970’s, a period that we believe shares the same characteristics as the one we are now entering.
The reason we are focusing on the US stock market is that it is sucking all of the air out of the room for gold and silver mining stocks. People chase performance and so we need gold and silver shares to outperform the broader markets on a consistent basis and then more people will pay attention to them.
Warren Buffett’s favorite dashboard item, the Total Stock Market value / GDP Ratio shows we are back to the 2021 all-time high.
The schedule below shows how the growth in fiat currency is not just a US phenomenon. China has outpaced the US in creating fiat currency. This surely has had an impact on prices of all assets worldwide.
MACRO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
So, the US stock market is priced for economic perfection. Will we attain it? It’s a cloudy picture.
The bull case for stocks includes: (i) money supply growth globally is beginning to occur again; (ii) fiscal stimulus has outweighed monetary restraints; and (iii) Wall Street is projecting continued earnings and revenue growth.
The bear case for stocks includes: (i) the historical valuation and technical extremes outlined above; and (ii) various concerning early warning economic signals. Below are four important charts on that front.
1. PMI Declining – the Chicago PMI is warning of an imminent downturn
2. Bloomberg US Economic Surprise Index has turned very negative and is approaching ominous levels. Will it matter? We believe that it could.
3. Unemployment – Jeff Gundlach of DoubleLine has harped on unemployment as being the next grenade to set off market alarms. As you can see below, it is starting to increase – in fact, the June unemployment rate came in above expectations at 4.1%. Notice how similar patterns in unemployment in 2000, 2007 led to serious problems. Again, no guarantees but worth watching
4. Consumer Confidence – The fourth and final bear market risk data point deals with consumer confidence, which is slipping.
Turning to inflation, CPI has certainly decelerated from the 2022 high of 9.1%, with the June 2024 CPI print coming in at 3.0%. The Fed has a stated inflation target of 2% but it will be hard to get there if private wages and salaries continue to grow at a greater than 4% rate as seen in the chart below.
Furthermore, even though the BLS shows inflation in the mid 3% range, some segments are much hotter:
If inflation does not decelerate further, it will be difficult for the Fed to cut rates which would have very negative implications for the interest cost on the outstanding US Federal debt. Furthermore, as the next schedule shows, inflation is fairly tightly correlated with commodities prices. The white line in the next chart is the S&P Goldman Sachs equal weighted commodity index and the red line is the all consumer CPI inflation reading. Note how they both made huge moves upward when the Fed grew the money supply by over 40% in 2020-2021 to address the COVID crisis. Also note how they have fallen as the Fed has demonstrated monetary restraint (higher interest rates and QT). Then finally note how the commodity index has started to move north again. We believe inflation will follow. As we have said in prior reports we believe this decade will look a lot like the 1970’s with recurring waves of inflation.
The problem with inflation is that it leads to higher bond yields and lower stock prices. Both of these things will only further damage the already fragile US Federal Government fiscal situation. If we get inflation combined with slower growth or a downturn (recession) then we have the dreaded “stagflation” which was the dominant theme of the 1970’s.
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THE ELECTION, SPECIAL INTERESTS AND DEBT
Like so many Americans, we too are frustrated and upset by what we are witnessing. From the horrific assassination attempt on Trump….to watching President Biden’s debate performance that makes it apparent that certain media outlets and the DNC itself have had an agenda to obfuscate the truth. It’s as if certain “elites” think that “we the people” are dummies and can be fooled. And to be clear – it’s both parties that are duping ALL Americans. Real Marie Antoinette / 1789 French Revolution type stuff.
As The Bullion Reserve’s Simon Mikhailovich points out:
We’ve always disliked the term “the Deep State” as it doesn’t do justice to how our political system has led us to this breaking point. If you say that term, most folks roll their eyes and think you are a conspiratorial nut. But so much of it adds up. Deep State should be called “special interests”. It’s simply how our government works and is so far afield from what our Founding Fathers wanted.
The Lobbyists pay the politicians the money to advocate a War agenda for the benefit of the Military Industrial Complex or to raise tariffs for certain commodity or technology industries. This has gone on for a long time. And it’s not just a US problem. It has now led to 50 years of wasteful spending and debt buildup, and you can’t put the debt genie back in the bottle and de-lever. It would kill the economy. Politicians just focus on the next election and vote for what the “special interest” lobbyists want….and the negative cycle continues and continues, until something eventually will break.
• For more on this topic, we encourage you to listen to even just the first 30 mins of this Tucker Carlson interview of Jeffrey Sachs from June 2024.
• Also, just so you don’t think we are “crazy conspiracists”, search “Operation Northwoods” on Wiki and you’ll get an example from 1962 of this type of stuff via all those unsealed documents.
Regardless of which administration wins the election, Washington likes to spend. Particularly given that (i) both Trump and Biden will only have 1 final term left, so budgets don’t matter; and (ii) the debt problem / interest rates / inflation rates cannot be easily resolved.
Lyn and Michael’s Tweet does a nice job of showing the problem:
You can read part two of this letter here. It includes:
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Federal Government Finances are a Mess
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The US Bond Market is Sick
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BRICS and Dedollarization
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Gold Demand
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Gold Supply Remains Constrained
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Gold and Silver Stocks Are Silly Cheap
QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 07/26/2024 – 09:10